playoff preview: yarmouth-dennis vs. chatham

The first-round playoff match-up in the East features two teams that were the hottest in the league down the stretch.

For one team, though, getting hot was nothing new.

Heading into Wednesday’s season finale, the defending champion and top-seeded Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox had lost only 11 games all year. They started the season with a six-game winning streak, had a four-game streak, two three-game streaks and in the last two weeks, put together another six-game winning streak. They never lost more than three games in a row.

Before the finale, the Red Sox had 31 wins. By my research, that’s the most in the last 10 years and just two shy of the all-time record of 33, held by the 1979 Hyannis Mets. The previous high in the last 10 years was 30, a mark reached by the 1999 Chatham A’s and the 2005 Orleans Cardinals. That Chatham team lost in the championship. Orleans won it.

If the Red Sox are going to cap off the big season with a title, they’ll have to get through a very solid Chatham team to do it.

The A’s were toiling in the middle of the pack for much of the summer, but when the offense came alive and the bullpen settled down, Chatham found itself. From July 19 through July 27, the A’s won seven of nine games, losing one and tying one. That burst helped the A’s separate themselves from the pack and they finished strong, too, holding off a charge from Brewster and Orleans to grab the second-place spot.

It should be an interesting series. Here’s a little breakdown.

SEASON SERIES

Six Meetings
Y-D: 3 wins (4-1, 7-1, 7-1)
Cha: 2 wins (12-11, 11-5)
1 tie

• In three wins, Y-D outscored Chatham 15-3
• In two wins, Chatham outscored Y-D 23-16
• Total runs in six games: Y-D 38, Cha 33

Games at Y-D
Y-D: 1 win
Cha: 1 win
1 tie

• In one win at Red Wilson Field, Y-D outscored Chatham 7-1
• In one win at Red Wilson Field, Chatham outscored Y-D 11-5

Games at Chatham
Y-D: 2 wins
Cha: 1 win

• In two wins at Veterans Field, Y-D outscored Chatham 8-2
• In one win at Veterans Field, Chatham outscored Y-D 12-11

Last Meeting
Y-D beat visiting Chatham 7-1 on August 4. Y-D took advantage of five Chatham errors and got 6.2 shutout innings from Trevor Holder. It was the lowest run total for Chatham since a 1-0 loss to Brewster July 26.

Conclusions
Depending on how you look at it, the teams can seem very even or very uneven. There isn’t much disparity in total runs, but Y-D’s average margin of victory in three games was four runs, and Chatham was held to one run in all those games. Both Chatham victories were slugfests.

STACKING UP THE STATS: OFEENSE

As of Tuesday, August 8, with one game left. Ranks in parentheses.

Chatham trails in every category, but really, who doesn’t? Y-D’s offense was a prolific as any in recent memory, with 10 players posting at least 11 RBI. Chatham had essentially the second-best offense in the league.

STACKING UP THE STATS: PITCHING

As of Tuesday, August 8, with one game left. Ranks for ERA and strikeouts in parentheses. I don’t have the ranks for WHIP and Opp. Avg.

Interesting that Y-D is near the top in ERA but at the bottom in strikeouts. That means the ball gets put in play a little more against Y-D pitchers, but that hasn’t been a bad thing. Y-D tied for the fewest errors in the league.

As bullpens go, Chatham has some shut-down relievers, while Y-D can be shaky before closer Nick Cassavecchia steps in.

Bottom line: with their rotations in line, both these teams have very solid pitchers.

Y-D TEAM CAPSULE

Offensive Leaders:
Average: Jason Castro – .344
Home Runs: Gordon Beckham and Sean Ochinko – 8
RBI: Gordon Beckham – 31

Pitching Leaders:
ERA: Jerry Sullivan – .56
Wins: Terry Doyle – 6
Strikeouts: Eddie Burns and Terry Doyle – 41

Probable Starters (I’m guessing and they shuffle the lineup a lot):
C – Buster Posey – .274
1B – Sean Ochinko – .311
2B – Joey Railey – .240
3B – Nick Romero – .259
SS – Gordon Beckham – .287
OF – Aaron Luna – .290
OF – Collin Cowgill – .284
OF – Matt Long – .217
DH – Jason Castro – .344
Somewhere – Grant Green – .290 (he plays everywhere)

Beckham and Castro are both MVP candidates and Ochinko isn’t far behind. That trio leads the way but everyone hits. Even Long, with his .217 average, has 13 RBI.

Top Pitchers:
SP – Eddie Burns – 5-1, 2.56
SP – Terry Doyle – 6-3, 2.35
SP – Scott Green – 3-1, 1.56
SP/RP – Trevor Holder – 4-1, .90
SP/RP – Jerry Sullivan – 3-0, .56
RP – D.J. Mauldin – 1-0, 3.00
CL – Nick Cassavechia – 1.07, 11 SV

I’ve read that Burns may not make the game-one start because of a suspension. Doyle or Green would be a fine choice, anyway, though. Both have been very good this year, and Doyle was the winner in Y-D’s championship-clinching victory last summer. Cassavechia is the league’s best closer.

CHATHAM TEAM CAPSULE

Offensive Leaders:
Average: Allan Dykstra – .315
Home Runs: Allan Dykstra – 5
RBI: Allan Dykstra – 31

Pitching Leaders:
ERA: Zach Putnam – .75
Wins: Tom Milone – 6
Strikeouts: Tom Milone – 46

Probable Starters (I’m guessing):
C – Tim Federowicz – .299
1B – Allan Dykstra – .315
2B – Kyle Seager – .257
3B – Jermaine Curtis – .303
SS – Scott Lyons – .248
OF – Jeremy Synan – .378 (in 17 games)
OF – Addison Johnson – .278
OF – Andrew Crisp – .282
DH – Zach Putnam – .253

Dykstra is tearing it up of late and gives the A’s a serious presence in the middle of the order. Johnson has been steady from the leadoff spot and Curtis and Putnam are solid run producers. Federowicz was hitting in the .100’s a week ago but has caught fire.

Top Pitchers:
SP – Tom Milone – 6-1, 2.92
SP – Charles Brewer – 2-2, 1.94
SP – Alex White – 2-1, 2.10
SP – Ryan Hinson – 3-2, 3.86
RP – Kevin Couture – 2-1, .90
RP – Rob Wooten – 1-0, 1.86
CL – Bryan Shaw – 3.32, 7 SV

Milone always finds a way to win and he has an incredible 46:7 strikeout to walk ratio. Brewer and White are both freshman but their inexperience hasn’t hurt them. Couture and Wooten have been dominant out of the pen.

WHAT I THINK

This series — like most baseball series — might come down to pitching. Y-D’s offense is great, yes, but Chatham has some very good starters and a great bullpen. On the other hand, Chatham’s offense isn’t as powerful, and Y-D’s pitchers have been great.

You never know what’ll happen, but I think Y-D’s offense may be too tough. One-through-nine, it’s by far the best lineup on the Cape and one of the best in years. It’s not just a few guys carrying the load. Everybody contributes.

In the end, I think the pitching will be stellar from both sides and the team that can scratch across a few more runs will take the series. I think Y-D gets the nod.

So, Y-D wins. I’ll say it goes to three games.

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