Season Preview: The Players

It can be a little bit of a grind to write bios for more than 250 players, like I’ve done the last two years. By no means am I complaining. If I didn’t want to do it, I wouldn’t.

But still: it’s a grind. The thing that gets me through is the sight of a player who’s having a big year, who looks like he’s a future Cape League star. I think every player who’s invited to the league has that potential, but some have many more credentials than others. Every year, probably a third of the players in the league, maybe more, are coming off college seasons that they weren’t too happy with. From my perspective, it’s the other guys that spark the excitement. It’s like playing a shaky round of golf, but hitting one or two great shots that make you want to come back.

This year, there were a ton of great shots.

That’s what led me to hint a few days ago that the talent in the league might be up this year. Proclaiming something like that might be over-stating it a little bit, because production doesn’t always equal talent, and vice versa.

But I think it’s safe to say that the spring production from the 2009 Cape League class was off the charts.

I realized this gradually, and it started as a feeling more than a fact. For nearly every team I wrote about, I found myself plugging in another .320 hitter, another double-digit home run guy, another strikeout-an-inning pitcher. The list just kept growing. It never felt like a grind. I kept running into players with great numbers, players I wanted to know more about. Last year, that didn’t happen nearly as much.

Now, I think some of the facts back it up. Check out the college stats files a few posts down, and you can see for yourself.

For comparison’s sake:

• At this time last year, there were 22 players on Cape League rosters who hit double-digit home runs, and the high was 18. This year: 38 players hit double-digit home runs and the high is 28.
• Last year, there was one pitcher who had over 100 strikeouts. Even the vaunted arms that went with Team USA weren’t over 100. This year: 11 pitchers struck out more than 100.

Of course, two stat categories do not a trend make, and some of the stats are similar. In fact, the number of .350-plus hitters is exactly the same from last year to this year.

But still, I can’t shake the feeling.

In the end, I have no idea what it’ll mean. This year’s draft kind of reflected the fact that the league’s overall level was down a bit last year. It was considered a light year for college hitters. Seven still went in the first round, and interestingly, all of them played on the Cape. But of the eight college pitchers who went in the first round, only one — Drew Storen — played on the Cape last year. That might have had something to do with the high batting averages and the high ERA’s that marked last season.

The thing is, last season was one of the more interesting ones the league has had in recent years. There was ridiculous parity. This year, we might revert to typical form. And even with the supposed increase in production, we might not actually see it reflected in any statistics. If the pitching is better, then it all might even out again.

Who knows? But for now, it’s a reason to get a little more excited than usual about the Cape’s boys of summer.

Names, Numbers, Trends, Etc.

• On current published rosters, there are 34 juniors, 191 sophomores and 83 freshmen. That’s about average all around.
• Some years, it’s the freshmen that really pique my interest. If they’re only freshmen and they’re on the Cape, you know they’re good. This year, there are plenty of freshmen to be excited about, but I feel like the sophomore class will not be taking a back seat. Lots of emerging talents ready to make a splash on the big stage.
• One of the more interesting storylines last summer was the high number of players who got drafted in June and used the Cape to leverage nice deals. There were seven of them, and one of them — Jimmy Cesario — was actually the league’s batting champ, even though he was playing in the minors when the Cape League season ended. This year, the number of drafted players is pretty high, so we may see some similar scripts. It’ll be particularly interesting if some of the early-round sophomore-eligible players decide to head for the Cape.
• In doing the early looks, one thing that stood out was the quality of the catchers on Cape League rosters. Of the 27 currently listed, 13 hit over .300 and five finished with double-digit home run totals. The production is spread out, too, with eight of the 10 teams having at least one of the catchers who hit over .300. Two Team USA invites — Yasmani Grandal and Blake Forsythe — lead the way statistically, but there are plenty of other guys who aren’t far behind.
• Anybody who likes a good small-school-kid-makes-it-big story should keep an eye on the pitching leaderboards. Several of the guys coming off the best springs aren’t from major programs. Chris Sale had a huge year for Florida Gulf Coast, a program that’s reclassifying to D-I. Jimmy Reyes had a fantastic season at Elon, a strong baseball program, but not a major-conference powerhouse. Max Russell and Daniel Tillman are coming from D-II Florida Southern. Tommy Collier, Patrick Cooper and Mitch Mormann are all ticketed for Falmouth after big junior-college seasons, while fellow juco star Chad Bell is on the Cotuit roster. It’ll be interesting to see how these guys fare against tougher competition.
• Like always, Team USA will have its say on who we get to see this summer. Twenty-five players have been invited to the trials — 12 pitchers and 13 hitters. Of the 36 players at the trials, 22 will make the team. The final roster will be announced on June 24. Last year, Team USA took nearly all the power arms that were ticketed for the Cape, and that had a pretty big impact on the season. I think there’s a little more depth on Cape rosters this year, so the inevitable USA selections might not hurt as much.
• It looks like there are three ’09 Cape Leaguers whose fathers played in the big leagues. Hyannis’ Cam Seitzer is the son of Kevin Seitzer, Cotuit’s Chance Ruffin is the son of Bruce Ruffin, and Cotuit’s Cory Vaughn is the son of Greg Vaughn, who was recently selected to the Cape League Hall of Fame.

MVP Watch List

In an effort to put some names out there, I’ll take a page out of the college awards playbook. I did this last year, and though my predictions for MVP and Pitcher of the Year were incorrect, some of the guys I listed had good summers. Others did not. So take this for what it’s worth. It’s fun, and I like having an idea of who the stars might be.

These are listed by team. Asterisks by Team USA invitees.

*Anthony Rendon – Bourne
*Blake Forsythe – Bourne
Ben Klafczynski – Bourne
*Tyler Holt – Bourne
*Jedd Gyorko – Brewster
Mark Canha – Brewster
*Jarrett Parker – Brewster
Jeff Schaus – Chatham
Cody Stanley – Cotuit
Cory Vaughn – Cotuit
Rico Noel – Cotuit
Kevin Keyes – Cotuit
Josh Adams – Falmouth
*Bryce Brentz – Harwich
*Ross Wilson – Harwich
Cody Hawn – Hyannis
Jackie Bradley, Jr. – Hyannis
Dan Burkhart – Hyannis
Michael Lang – Orleans
Derek Dietrich – Wareham
Alex Dickerson – Wareham
George Springer – Wareham
Ryan LaMarre – Wareham
Mickey Wiswall – Y-D
Andy Wilkins – Y-D

Prediction: I would pick Bryce Brentz, but I think he’ll stay with Team USA, so I’m going with Hyannis’ Cody Hawn. Two years ago, he was a potential early-round pick but an injury cost him that chance. After a big year in junior college last year, he didn’t miss a beat while a making the huge step to Tennessee and the SEC.

Outstanding Pitcher Watch List

This is probably tougher to predict than anything involving the hitters. Plenty of good pitchers see their numbers balloon in the college game, so it’s tough to get a feel for things. Changing roles also make it difficult. Many relievers turn into starters on the Cape, and vice versa. Last year’s award winner was Nick McCully, who was a closer in the spring and a starter in Bourne.

*Alex Wimmers, Bourne
*Drew Pomeranz, Bourne
*Cody Wheeler, Bourne
Robert Morey, Bourne
Matt Harvey, Chatham
*Gerrit Cole, Cotuit
Max Russell, Cotuit
Chance Ruffin, Cotuit
Seth Blair, Cotuit
Justin Grimm, Cotuit
Jordan Cooper, Falmouth
Patrick Cooper, Falmouth
Tommy Collier, Falmouth
*Daniel Renken, Harwich
Aaron Meade, Harwich
Casey Harman, Hyannis
*Deck McGuire, Orleans
Jimmy Reyes, Orleans
Taylor Jungmann, Wareham
Brandon Workman, Wareham
Scott Rembisz, Wareham
*Trevor Bauer, Y-D
Chris Sale, Y-D
Austin Ross, Y-D
*Anthony Ranaudo, Y-D

Prediction:Any Team USA guys who come to the Cape would be good picks. I’ll stay away from them when it comes to predictions and I’m also going to shy away from the Omaha crew. I think I’ll go a little bit off the board for this one and take a flyer on Florida Southern lefty Max Russell. His numbers were really, really good this spring, and though he put them up against D-II competition, he seems to be a legitimate prospect who should be ready for a step up.

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