The 2012 Cape Cod Baseball League season has been one of the best and most exciting ever.
Now it’s time for the encore.
Two teams head in as established favorites — Harwich has been there all year while Cotuit became the rare team to hit the 30-win plateau, while getting 25 of those wins after July 1.
But as always in the Cape League, the playoffs are anybody’s game.
WEST PLAYOFFS
No. 1 Cotuit (30-14) vs. No. 4 Bourne (17-27)
Game 1: Thursday, 4 p.m. at Lowell Park, Cotuit
Game 2: Friday, 7 p.m. at Doran Park, Bourne
Game 3 (if necessary): Saturday, 4 p.m. at Lowell Park, Cotuit
Season Series: Cotuit 4, Bourne 2
In a season full of team storylines, Cotuit’s success became the dominant team-related story of the summer. The Kettleers, in case you missed it, fell to 8-10 with a lopsided loss to Hyannis on July 6. From that point on, they went 22-4.
So it’s been a pretty amazing run. Now the Kettleers will try to keep it going.
Cotuit finished second in the league in batting average at .288, but over their final 26 games, the Kettleers hit .303. Patrick Biondi, Daniel Aldrich and Tony Kemp finished with the top three batting averages in the league, and Aldrich — a late pickup from Orleans — emerged as a leading candidate for MVP honors.
Starting pitching was never Cotuit’s strongest point, even when the team started heating up, but the bullpen eases most of those concerns. Ryan Connolly led the league in wins out of the pen, and Dan Slania has been the league’s top closer.
For Cotuit, that’s been the perfect formula and the hope is that it keeps working in the postseason.
Bourne has had an up-and-down year. There’s a lot of talent, particularly in the middle of the order with Colin Moran leading the way, but the Braves never seemed to put it all together.
They’ve got a shot against Cotuit and their starting pitching has been better of late, but I have to give the edge to the Kettleers. You win 30 games by playing good baseball, and Cotuit has done that significantly more often than not in the last month.
No. 2 Wareham (21-23) vs. No. 3 Falmouth (21-23)
Game 1: Thursday, 7 p.m. at Spillane Field, Wareham
Game 2: Friday, 7 p.m. at Guv Fuller Field, Falmouth
Game 3 (if necessary): Saturday, 7 p.m. at Spillane Field, Wareham
Season Series: Wareham 3, Falmouth 3
If not for an eight-game losing streak late in the year, Falmouth would have been a solid second-place team. As it is, a mini-surge by Wareham in the season’s final week gave the Gatemen the No. 2 seed and home-field advantage for this round.
I still think Falmouth’s skid was the outlier, and not a defining moment for this team. With Sean Hagan, Trey Masek and Craig Schlitter leading the charge, I think the Commodores have more depth of starting pitching than any team in the playoffs. The offense took a hit when Jared King left with an injury, but Drew Dosch and company have shown the ability to score runs.
In Wareham, Falmouth runs into a powerful offensive team. In fact, while Harwich broke the Cape’s home run record, Wareham’s lineup actually looks just as fearsome. Tyler Horan and Kyle Schwarber, in particular, have been scorching.
The key as always for Wareham is its pitching. The offense can slug but it hasn’t regularly out-slugged people when the pitching has struggled. Wareham carries a 4.51 ERA into the postseason.
And ultimately, pitching is what has me thinking Falmouth here.
EAST PLAYOFFS
No. 1 Harwich (27-16-1) vs. No. 4 Orleans (22-22)
Game 1: Thursday, 7 p.m. at Whitehouse Field, Harwich
Game 2: Friday, 7 p.m. at Eldredge Park, Orleans
Game 3: Saturday, 7 p.m. at Whitehouse Field, Harwich
Season Series: Harwich 5, Orleans 1
If you had told me in June that Harwich and Orleans would meet in the first round of the playoffs, I would not have believed you. The way they were playing in June had me wishing 2012 was like that one weird season a few years ago when two teams from the same division could play for the championship.
But the dog days of summer weren’t too kind to either team. Harwich still won the East and broke the league’s home run record, but there were chinks in the armor. Orleans hung around but limped into the playoffs with a five-game losing streak.
Like the Wareham-Falmouth match-up, what stands out in this one is Harwich’s offensive strength vs. Orleans’ pitching. The Mariners obviously led the league in home runs while Orleans had the best ERA for essentially the whole summer.
Five times in the regular season, Harwich won out, but it wasn’t just the power vs pitching match-up that decided things. Harwich also pitched well, and Orleans couldn’t keep up.
I could see that happening again here. The Mariners ranked fourth in the league in ERA and almost broke the league’s strikeout record. Combine that with an Orleans that scored fewer than three runs per game in its five-game skid, and you’ve got a tough road ahead for the Firebirds.
No. 2 Y-D (25-19) vs. No. 3 Chatham (21-21-2)
Game 1: Thursday, 4 p.m. at Red Wilson Field, South Yarmouth
Game 2: Friday, 7 p.m. at Veterans Field, Chatham
Game 3: Saturday, 4 p.m. at Red Wilson Field, South Yarmouth
Season Series: Y-D 3, Chatham 3
Chatham snuck into the third spot by beating Orleans twice to end the season. The reward for the Anglers is a match-up with Y-D, whom they played pretty well against in the regular season.
This, too, could be a case of strength vs. strength. Chatham finished second in the league in ERA, while Y-D led the league in hitting with a .300 average and runs scored with 278. If good pitching beats good hitting, Chatham has the edge.
The only problem for the Anglers is that Y-D has some pretty good pitching, too, especially the way the Red Sox have things lined up. andrew Thurman — who was pretty solid all year and turned in a dominant complete-game shutout on July 22 — gets the ball in game one, while ERA leader Aaron Blair is scheduled to start game two.
Chatham counters with Mike Wagner and Thomas Lawrence, two good pitchers in their own right, and I’m tempted to pick the Anglers. Y-D has shown a weird propensity for losing games it should win, like Ben Lively’s 15-strikeout performance. But ultimately, if Thurman and Blair pitch like they’re capable of, Y-D is set up well to take care of business. I’m not sure Chatham’s offense can keep up.
How does Mike Roberts come up with his batting order? He’s got the two leading on-base men in the league, both of whom have great speed, and he bats them fifth and sixth. Then he’s got a huge power hitter who doesn’t walk and he bats him second. Actually Nelubowich doesn’t walk much either and he leads off. It’s bizarre … though statistical studies have show that it doesn’t matter that much.