season preview: teams

As I mentioned below, things seem wide open when it comes to the players. That contributes to the idea that the race for the Cape League title may be wide open, too. With 63 players at Team USA trials or the College World Series — more than one-fifth of the league — every team is dealing with significant roster shuffling. The team that can weather that storm the best may give itself a huge head start.

Who’s best equipped to handle it? Interestingly enough, I think it’s the Chatham A’s, the team that probably has the most balanced collection of talent. That balance is built on depth, and the A’s have plenty of it. They’ll be waiting on four North Carolina players, including three pitchers, and they’ll be waiting to see what happens with Justin Marks, who’s been invited to Team USA. But the A’s will still have four pitchers who’ve had Cape League success in Charles Brewer, Brad Boxberger, Gavin Brooks and Kevin Couture. At the plate, they’ll still have Grant Green and Aaron Miller, arguably their best hitters.

For now, I’d give Chatham the edge in navigating the early part of the season. But you know what? Once we hit July and things get sorted out, just about anything can happen.

In putting the early looks together, I was struck by just how talented every team is. Everybody has All-Americans, everybody has all-conference players, everybody has guys who have been drafted and guys who will be at the top of draft boards next year.

When you factor in all the roster changes and the fact that great players are facing other great players every night, you get a serious dose of parity. Sure, teams occasionally run away with division titles, but for the most part, there isn’t much difference between teams at the top of the heap and teams at the bottom. Consider this: Yarmouth-Dennis, the best team this league has seen in a long time, played fourth-place Wareham four times last year. Y-D won three of those meetings but the combined score of the four games was Y-D 14, Wareham 12.

So anything can happen, and that’s why it’s so difficult to predict. The players, themselves, make it even tougher. This time last year, Jason Castro was coming off a spring where he hit .167, Buster Posey had hit only three home runs and Gordon Beckham was still flying under the radar. Who could have predicted that they would team up for Y-D to form one of the best trios in Cape League history.

For teams to have success, they need a lot of things like that. Essentially, they need a lot to go right. Since I’ve already gone into great detail in the early looks, rather than sum things up with generic team capsules, I’ll take a little different approach and talk about those needs. Obviously, a lot of these are in a similar vein, but I’m trying to make them very specific to each team. At the end of all this, I do have a fearless prediction.

Bourne Braves
What has to go right: The big hitters have to hit. With only two players in the College World Series and two trying out for Team USA, the Braves should have a relatively stable roster. The starting pitching should be decent, and the bullpen should be great with Eric Pettis at the back end. To turn stability into success, they’ll need their key offensive players to deliever. Players like Jordan Henry, Richard Jones, Jamie Johnson, Kyle Roller and Ross Wilson will have to hold down that lineup because there isn’t a ton of depth around them.

Cotuit Kettleers
What has to go right: Quite simply, Robert Stock needs a big summer. He’s a guy with all the tools and he was solid last year, but this spring wasn’t great for him. With his talent, he can carry this offense, and as one of the few guys on the roster who looks like a star, he may have to.

Falmouth Commodores
What has to go right: Falmouth needs a dominant starter. With Kyle Gibson at Team USA trials, there’s a gaping hole in the rotation. That stands in stark contrast to last year, when the Commodores had three first-round draft picks and Gibson at the top. Oregon State’s Jorge Reyes, who will be trying to rediscover his freshman year form, is as good a cnadidate as any to emerge.

Hyannis Mets
What has to go right: The junior circuit has to make things happen. Hyannis is the oldest team in the league, a product of their front office changes and the resulting delay in signing players. It could pay off in a big way if juniors like Ryan Lavarnway and Andrew Carraway can deliver. They’re older, wiser, and if they turn that into success, the Mets will be in very good shape.

Wareham Gatemen
What has to go right: Some unknowns will have to make a splash. Wareham got hit harder by Team USA than any other team. Six players — perhaps their six best players — have been invited, which means some temporary players and some guys without all the hype need to step up. It can be done, though. Last year, Bourne won the West with a roster that looked nothing like it did when it was first released.

Brewster Whitecaps
What has to go right: Without a doubt, Brewster needs to find some starting pitchers. Only a few players on that team were weekend starters this spring, and while a guy like Caleb Coltham should do good things, the Whitecaps will need more than that.

Chatham A’s
What has to go right: Just enough offense. I don’t think the pitching has much in the way of question marks. They’re going to hold teams down. That means a Chatham offense that doesn’t look truly explosive just needs to do enough each time out.

Harwich Mariners
What has to go right: More than any other team, the Mariners have to weather the roster shuffling storm. Five players are in the College World series, while two more have been invited to Team USA.

Orleans Cardinals
What has to go right: Kind of the oppostie of Chatham: Orleans needs jut enough pitching. Angelo Songco, Nate Freiman and a host of others are going to make that offense pretty tough to stop. They’re going to score runs. A pitching staff that looks untested will simply have to keep Orleans in front.

Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox
What has to go right: The players will hear about last year’s team. They need to not listen. This group is talented, but not close to last year’s team. As long as they don’t feel any added pressure from what they hear about the dynasty, they’ve got a real chance to compete.

So that’s that. I hope it sums things up a little bit. As for the prediction, I was very close to picking Orleans because I’m a believer in the idea that you need more offense than pitching. But in the end, I think I’ll stick with Chatham. They should have no trouble holding their own in the first few weeks, and once Matt Harvey, Adam Warren and Alex White arrive from Omaha, they’ll be primed and ready to take off.

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