This time of year, it’s always hard to believe that it’s this time of year. It feels like the season started last week. But we march on. The playoffs begin tonight. Here are some quick breakdowns for all the series . . .
West Playoffs
No. 1 Hyannis vs. No. 4 Falmouth
Game 1: Friday, 7 p.m. at McKeon Park, Hyannis
Game 2: Saturday, 7 p.m. at Guv Fuller Field, Falmouth
Game 3 (if necessary): Sunday, 7 p.m. at McKeon Park, Hyannis
Hyannis: 29-15
Falmouth: 19-25
Season Series: Hyannis 3, Falmouth 3
Hyannis went 5-1 in the first week of the season and has essentially been the team to beat since then. Other teams have gotten hot and cooled down; Hyannis has remained steady — and has been hot a few times in its own right. The Harbor Hawks won eight in a row late in the season and finished with 10 wins in their final 13 games.
They’re the favorite, but they need only look back to their last three games to know that it won’t be easy at any point, even in a first-round series against a team that had its struggles down the stretch. Falmouth had lost five in a row but finished out the season by taking two of three — from Hyannis.
The Commodores also have strong pitching on their side. Joe Bircher led the league in strikeouts while game one starter Andrew Heaney tied for second. As a team, Falmouth had the best ERA in the league.
I still give Hyannis the edge, though. The offense is balanced, with different guys stepping up every night. There’s a lot of depth there. As for the pitching, Hyannis tied for second in team ERA, and they’re facing a Falmouth team that hasn’t been as strong since Jack Marder signed a pro contract.
I think the Harbor Hawks may have the intangible, too. The franchise hasn’t won a Cape League title since 1991, and the players know that. They’ve seemed like a special group from the start — now they get to see how far they can go.
No. 2 Wareham vs. No. 3 Bourne
Game 1: Friday, 7 p.m. at Spillane Field, Wareham
Game 2: Saturday, 4 p.m. at Doran Park, Bourne
Game 3 (if necessary): Sunday, 7 p.m. at Spillane Field, Wareham
Wareham: 23-21
Bourne: 22-20-2
Season Series: Wareham 4, Bourne 2
Bourne looked destined for the No. 2 seed when it won 9 of 10 games in early July. Since that stretch ended, though, the Braves have gone 4-9. In the meantime, Wareham came from off the pace, won its final five games — including two over Bourne — and clinched the two spot and the home-field advantage that comes with it.
Statistically, the Gatemen are tough to figure out. They’re in the bottom half of the league in both team average and ERA, not the typical profile for a playoff team, let alone the No. 2 seed. But the Gatemen have found ways to win games. Daniel Palka and Robert Refsnyder have been leading the offense lately, while Max Muncy has been steady all summer. On the mound, there isn’t a dominant ace since Justin Amlung signed a pro contract, but Josh Turley has been good and Brent Suter has pitched well his last two times out.
Things are a little more clear-cut for the Braves. If they hit, they win. Their pitching staff is one of the best in the league from top to bottom, but their team batting average ended up at .240. In its July win streak, Bourne hit .282. With strong pitching, an offensive jump like that makes an enormous difference. Travis Jankowski has been a mainstay atop the lineup, but Bourne needs other guys to step up if it’s going to make a run.
East Playoffs
No. 1 Orleans vs. No. 4 Yarmouth-Dennis
Game 1: Friday, 7 p.m. at Eldredge Park, Orleans
Game 2: Saturday, 4 p.m. at Red Wilson Field, Y-D
Game 3 (if necessary): Sunday, 7 p.m. at Eldredge Park, Orleans
Orleans: 24-17-3
Y-D: 19-21-4
Season Series: Y-D 3, Orleans 2, 1 tie
The way things were going in early July, with teams just seeming to float, somebody was going to make a run in the East. It was Orleans, and it was a big run. The Firebirds won 11 of their final 12 games.
Can they keep it up? They’ve been very hot, hitting .284 as a team during the 12-game stretch. They’ve also pitched well, allowing more than three earned runs only three times in the 12 games.
The individual statistics aren’t overwhelming for Orleans, but when you run down the list that includes Matt Duffy, Reed Gragnani, Ben Waldrip and Andrew Aplin, you realize the Firebirds have five solid hitters. Several other guys have heated up lately.
In terms of pitching, Orleans is like a lot of teams in that it doesn’t have a dominant ace, but the team still ranked fifth in ERA.
As for Y-D, if there’s a sleeper in these playoffs, the Red Sox might be it. They had an influx of talent after Team USA and the College World Series ended, but it hasn’t quite translated to wins yet. Still, though, when you add Matt Reynolds and Brian Johnson to an offense that was already strong with Mason Katz, Stephen Piscotty and James Ramsey, you have a team that’s bound to get going.
The pitching is the wildcard for Y-D. The Red Sox didn’t list any probables, but it’s possible that they could trot out Johnson — a two-way star at Florida — and Stanford’s Mark Appel, perhaps the top college pitching prospect for the 2012 draft class. Appel, in particular, could provide an enormous boost. He has made only two appearances this summer, but struck out 12 in six innings in his second start.
So, essentially, it’s the team that’s been hot vs. the team that everyone thinks should be getting hot. It’s going to be interesting — probably the most interesting of all the first-round series.
No. 2 Harwich vs. No. 3 Brewster
Game 1: Friday, 7 p.m. at Whitehouse Field, Harwich
Game 2: Saturday, 4 p.m. at Stony Brook Field, Brewster
Game 3 (if necessary): Sunday, 7 p.m. at Whitehouse Field, Harwich
Harwich: 24-19-1
Brewster: 20-20-4
Season Series: Harwich 3, Brewster 2, 1 tie
For quite a while, it looked like Harwich and Brewster would be battling it out for the top seed, until Orleans came along. Now the Mariners and Whitecaps meet each other in the playoffs in probably the most clear-cut, strength vs. strength match-up of the first round.
Harwich’s team ERA is higher than you’d think (3.35) because it seems like the Mariners have been dominating. I’ll still call pitching a strength for them, though, particularly in the bullpen. Nobody has been able to touch Carter Capps or Chris Overman, so if Harwich gets a lead look out.
Brewster actually has a better ERA than Harwich, but the Whitecaps’ identity is tied up in its offense. The Whitecaps hit .260 this year, tied with Cotuit for the best mark in the league.
How does it shake out? In these kinds of match-ups, it’s offense not the strong attributes that decide things. In that case, Brewster’s pitching might be too much for Harwich, whit hit .238 as a team, second-worst in the league and worst among playoff teams. And the Whitecaps’ probably starters — Tony Buccifero, Luke Bard and Brandon Love — have quietly been very good.
If the Whitecaps get quality starts, I’ll give them the slight edge.